Shevchenko’s job as the central bank chief, a role he has held since 2020, has gone well beyond the usual fiddling with interest rates and regulating the finance industry.
He says his main task in wartime is to “maintain financial stability and ensure the smooth operation of critical infrastructure” but he is also part of Kyiv’s efforts to pressure the West into action.
“To bring the victory closer, we are also working hard on the financial front as we appeal to multinational companies and institutions to impose sanctions on Russia and its ally Belarus.”
While Ukraine has faced numerous economic challenges in recent years – the loss of Crimea, fighting in the industry-heavy Donbas, the collapse of the hryvnia, its currency, an IMF bailout and Covid – none have proved as crippling as Putin’s war.
After the “shock” of the first days of the war, Shevchenko says the Ukrainian economy started to “adapt to operating under martial law”.
Consumer demand has understandably shifted towards goods needed for defence, medical supplies, energy and basic essentials. The need for imports is also likely to rise given Ukraine’s factory production has been hit and stocks have been depleted, he adds.
“The Russian military aggression against Ukraine disrupted many production and supply chains, [and] caused economic activity and private consumption to decrease,” says Shevchenko.
“It’s very difficult to make any assessments while Russia continues to attack our country.”
What is left of the Ukrainian economy when Putin is finished is still uncertain and hinges on the length of the conflict and the scale of the destruction. Workers that fled may return to their homes but much of the country’s productive capacity in fighting hotspots may have been knocked out, taking years to rebuild.
“We realise that everything will mainly depend on how and when this war ends for Ukraine. If we win soon, protect our territory and strengthen our ties with the EU, we will be able to recover our economy within an adequate timeframe.”
‘Defending the foundations of democracy’
It is not just weapons Kyiv needs to fight off Putin, but funding – both during the war and the recovery. Shevchenko says Ukraine will need “massive assistance” to fund its revival but expects to “recover our country’s economic potential quickly” if enough aid is forthcoming.
“International support is also very instrumental in maintaining our financial defence,” he says, estimating that aid has exceeded $20bn so far.
He urges people to donate to its army and humanitarian causes, saying: “Ukraine is defending not only its own independence, but also the foundations of democracy itself.”
Shevchenko, 49, was born in Tula in the Soviet Union, now part of Russia. He worked in a mine before going to university in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and an area devastated by Russian shelling, before embarking on a career in finance.
After serving as chairman of Ukrgasbank he became the NBU’s governor in July 2020 as the economy grappled with Covid restrictions.
While Ukraine is expected to suffer a sharp contraction, the wave of Western measures and self-sanctioning by companies is also expected to cause huge GDP losses in Russia.
It is hoped that turning up the heat on Russian businesses and households will persuade the Kremlin to ditch a war it has struggled to make gains in.
Shevchenko wants the West and its companies to go even further in striking blows to the heart of the Russian economy, even if it hurts themselves.
“I understand it means big financial losses,” he says. “However, to work further in Russia is to come to terms with your conscience, which nothing can justify.
“Today, the cash flows coming in or out of Russia are ‘bloody money’ that finance the killing of civilian Ukrainians and the ruthless destruction of Ukraine.”
