Even now, Rishi Sunak does not seem able to admit to the full scale of the challenge facing the UK economy in the coming months. Yesterday, he warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had created significant economic “uncertainty”. That is putting it mildly. Well before Vladimir Putin launched his murderous assault, households were experiencing severe financial pain because of runaway inflation. Now, some analysts are forecasting that the UK will fall back into recession, in part because of the threat of retaliatory sanctions from the Kremlin.

The Government has often been criticised for not having a serious plan for economic growth. It has appeared to complacently believe that the nation’s prosperity is almost guaranteed, and that taxpayers can be squeezed in order to fund massive new public spending and “investment”. That was always misguided and a betrayal of Conservative principles. Now, however, it threatens to push ministers into an economic and political error of historic proportions.

It is extraordinary that the Government is apparently resolved to push ahead with its plans to launch another tax raid on working people with a sharp rise in National Insurance contributions.

The Treasury is said to believe that it is too late to change course. This appears to be as much to do with bureaucratic inertia as anything else. Is the Government really so in hock to the interests of the Civil Service that it cannot abandon a policy with weeks to spare before it is meant to come into force? Especially as the consequences of proceeding are so dire. Council tax, energy, food and fuel prices: all are rising at an alarming rate. Households must fund the extra expense out of their post-tax income.

Do ministers seriously believe that voters will shrug off the impact of significantly higher personal taxation in such circumstances? Increasing the burden on businesses, at a time of some economic peril, could also result in higher unemployment.

The Prime Minister has been lucky. Partygate allegations have fallen from view and he has impressed on the world stage with his handling of the Ukraine crisis. He now has the opportunity to reset his premiership, with defence, energy and economic policies that befit the perilous new era we are entering.

If he persists with his injudicious tax plans, however, he risks throwing that opportunity away. Conservative governments that break their promises not to raise taxes do not tend to fare well in subsequent elections. Conservative governments that raise taxes as the country heads into a recession are courting economic and electoral disaster.