Almost a week of war in Ukraine and there remains much confusion as to just how much progress the invading Russians have made. While Ukrainians – ordinary people and soldiers alike – have undoubtedly put up a robust defence thus far, the next few days will unfortunately require even tougher resistance.
Indeed, Russia has played a cleverer game than some are able to see. To put this invasion into a historical perspective, Putin’s forces have taken more ground than the Wehrmacht had in Germany’s blitzkrieg of Poland in 1939 in the same period of time. Many have been blinded by Ukraine’s successful defence of forward positions and the apparent avoidance of large urban areas by the invaders, as well as the Ukrainian government’s effective use of social media. However, the picture on the battlefield may soon shift decisively.
Russia now appears to be close – if it has not already happened – to breaking over the Dnieper River at the strategic southern town of Nova Kakhovka. This affords its forces an almost entirely undefended land-bridge to both Odessa and, crucially, the southern approach to Kyiv. This action could effectively cut off much of the Ukrainian Army, approximately two thirds of which lay to the east of the Dnieper. Surrounded, such forces would be subject to the mercy of Russia’s next wave of reinforcements, crossing from multiple sides.
Today, social media is littered with examples of the resolute spirit of Kyiv’s residents as they endure days of air raids and skirmishes in the suburbs. This a city prepared to fight, and soon it will have to. What is coming will be a tragedy for all, for nothing comes as close to the chaos and confusion of urban warfare. Largely obscured from the current Russian advance, the battle for Kyiv, a city of millions of largely armed civilians, will be nothing short of a bloodbath, for both sides.
Ukrainians hold a numerical advantage in the city, with the Russians doctrinally requiring approximately five soldiers for every armed defender. Kyiv residents and the military units already there are busy placing obstacles, road blocks, and citing likely ambush positions for the inevitable assault. Every street a sniper’s playground, each junction an ambush point for advancing armoured columns.
The break-in for the Russians will be tough, so it might well be preceded by a renewed and even deadlier orbital bombardment and artillery barrage to soften up the city’s defences and intimidate the defenders into fleeing. One of the great ironies will be that, the more dogged the defence of the city becomes, the more hubris we will see from Russian forces: we should expect Russian regard for civilian casualties to deteriorate.
We in the West have not experienced such brutal warfare save in part during the Iraq War, and before that, the Second World War. It will shock us, but we must remain resolute in our support for Ukraine’s right to exist and increasingly support them with military hardware.
Robert Clark is a Defence Fellow at Civitas. He served for fifteen years in the British military, including deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan
