Financial armageddon looms as investors wait for Moscow’s ‘uninvestable’ stock market to reopen

Circulating Twitter is a picture of a set of china bowls hanging precariously inside a glass cabinet. The implication is that it will come crashing to the ground once someone slides open the door. 

“This is the Moscow stock exchange waiting to open,” notes one Twitter user, wryly. 

Moscow’s bourse has now been closed for four days after the West imposed a string of sanctions aimed at hammering the Russian economy following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The situation is so dire that Alexander Butmanov, a Russian market strategist, went on a state-run news channel this week to say he may have to work as “Santa Claus” because of the impacts sanctions have had on Russia’s capital markets. 

He proceeded to open a bottle of sparkling water and held it aloft as he toasted the “death of the stock market”, adding: “Dear stock market, you were close to us, you were interesting, rest in peace dear comrade.” 

There is little indication about when the country’s central bank will decide to reopen the exchange. The only clarity being given to investors is a promise to update the market by 6am each morning.

The prolonged cessation of trading is the longest closure of the exchange since 1998, when Russia was in the midst of a severe financial crisis. It led to the Kremlin devaluing the ruble and defaulting on its debt – the measures then imposed to alleviate the situation sent international investors fleeing.

This time – when it eventually reopens – there is likely to be another reckoning. Analysts expect valuations to be devastated as Western investors attempt to pull their money out of Russia.

As it stands, investors can only guess the value of Russian listed assets. What is almost certain, however, is that the damage done by Putin’s invasion of his western neighbour will be seismic – some traders have warned Moscow has become “uninvestable”.

On Thursday, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, estimated the value of its Russian assets have plummeted to a tenth of their prior level. 

The fund held around £2.3bn invested in Russian equities at the end of last year, which is now estimated to be worth just £200m, a figure described as “very, very uncertain”. 

“It might be that they are essentially worthless,” said Trond Grande, the fund’s deputy head. 

As Moscow braces for expected chaos, Putin has introduced emergency measures to try and prevent the expected exodus of Western capital. On Tuesday, Russian prime minister Mikhail Mishustin announced capital controls and banned foreigners from selling securities locally. 

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