True, there are some short-term costs. With all the men under 60 required to stay and fight, women and children are arriving with little more than the clothes they are wearing, and the few possessions they have managed to pack in a hurry. And yet, within a few years they will turn into a huge asset. Here’s why.
First, they are mostly highly skilled. Ukraine was spending some of the highest amounts on education in the OECD (7pc of GDP compared to a 5pc average, and more than the UK). There isn’t an automatic correlation between the amount spent on education and results – but it certainly helps.
Likewise, Ukraine had six universities in the top 1,000 globally, an impressive number for a small, relatively poor country. Its graduates are the equal of any in the world.
Next, they are mostly young. Ukraine has a similar age profile to the rest of Europe but right now it is the younger people that are fleeing. Many of the countries they are arriving in already face a looming demographic crisis.
Poland, for example, even though it has created one of the most successful economies in Europe, has an even lower birth rate than Germany (1.4 babies per woman, way below the replacement rate).
Slovakia and the Czech Republic are only very slightly better (1.5 and 1.7 respectively in case you were wondering). All of those countries have been growing fast but were about to face all the challenges of aging, declining populations, with spiralling care costs, and shortages of labour. At a stroke, that has been fixed. They won’t be short of people anymore.
Finally, like most immigrants they will be driven and hardworking. We have seen that countless times, from the Kindertransport that rescued Jewish children from the Holocaust, to the Asians expelled from Idi Amin’s Uganda in the 1970s, to the Poles, Czechs and Hungarians who moved to the UK from the early 2000s onwards.
The reasons for the mass movement of people differ from decade to decade. But one point is always true. When they arrive in a new country they have a resourcefulness, a work ethic, and a determination that invariably makes them a success. That will be as true of the Ukrainian refugees of the 2020s as it has always been in the past.
Dominated by Russia, concentrating on basic resources, stuck with heavy industries, and struggling to defend its borders, Ukraine’s economy has not been a success over the last couple of decades. It has fallen way behind Poland: from similar starting points when the Soviet Union broke up, Ukraine’s GDP per capita has only risen to $3,600, while in Poland it is above $15,000.
But its people have huge talents and, as they have demonstrated, magnificent resilience. We will see what happens over the next few weeks, and we all hope the war ends quickly, and they can go home again. If that doesn’t happen, and in reality there is little sign of it so far, millions of Ukranians will make new lives for themselves across the rest of Europe and indeed the world. Every country that welcomes the people escaping the conflict will be hugely strengthened by an influx of talented, hard-working people. That will be true of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
And if the UK is smart, over the next few weeks, we will open our borders to 300,000, 400,000 or even half a million refugees. Within only a few years their energy, intelligence and fortitude will have revitalised our economy.
