Ukraine is burning and a humanitarian crisis is unfolding as the Russian invasion continues. The Chinese government, the best placed in the world to lean on Vladimir Putin, has offered to mediate, but has refrained from taking any concrete measure that will end the suffering of the Ukrainian people. The discrepancy between the rhetoric and action is deafening.  It reflects the reality of Chinese foreign policy priorities.

China publicly articulated unlimited friendship for Russia when Putin met Xi Jinping at the opening of the Beijing Olympics, as Russian forces were poised to invade Ukraine. There can be no doubt that Xi knew what he was doing.  Implicitly, in return for Chinese support against Western sanctions, Russia would not spoil Xi’s Olympics or harm China’s vast interests in Ukraine. The timing of the invasion surely confirms that Putin avoided ruining Xi’s big party.

Both miscalculated, as they expected Russian forces to get Ukraine to bend the knee, either under a threat of war or after an effective surgical strike. True believers in the superiority of authoritarian systems and their own propaganda, the determination and heroism of the Ukrainians took Putin and Xi by surprise.

Given that Xi openly proclaimed his “China dream of national rejuvenation”, the Ukrainian crisis offers China a golden opportunity to advance this goal by playing a pivotal and constructive role in global leadership. Xi’s idea is to get the rest of the world to admire the superiority of China’s system and embrace its global leadership. With Putin becoming ever more reliant on Chinese support as Western sanctions bite, Xi is the only world leader who could persuade Putin to end the invasion and find a way out. Even if China’s diplomacy should fail, a well-crafted effort would earn China plenty of applause.

But the Chinese government forsakes this opportunity and acts otherwise, formally offering to mediate but publicly reassuring Putin that its support for Russia remains “rock solid”. The offer to mediate reflects both the professionalism of the Chinese diplomatic corps and its limits. Foreign Minister Wang Yi no doubt knows better but must reaffirm support for Russia because he is answerable to Xi.  

While Xi is committed to making China great again, he also has an even stronger objective. It is to make China safe for the Communist Party and, in particular, its “core leader” – himself. To do so, China must also make the world safe for authoritarianism and Xi’s fellow strongman Putin.

The Chinese government can see that the war in Ukraine is not advancing China’s best interests or even protecting China’s significant interests in Ukraine. But allowing Putin to fail would weaken his hold on power in Russia. This is the ultimate nightmare scenario for Xi, more than the Ukraine war escalating into a wider conflict. 

Xi has time and again declared that he is a Marxist and deeply regrets the collapse of communism in Europe. He supports Putin because they both want to challenge American global dominance and to make the world safe for authoritarianism. They enjoy camaraderie as fellow strongmen who share a Leninist party upbringing. 

If Xi were to allow Putin to fail and lose power, would it give Xi’s enemies in China or the Communist Party ideas? Even allowing Putin to be humiliated by the United States or US-lead Western alliance will undermine Xi’s own standing within the Communist Party and in China. It may also put paid to his ambition to take Taiwan, a territory and a people claimed by Xi as quintessentially Chinese – a claim not dissimilar to Putin’s over Ukraine and Ukrainians – though few Taiwanese agree with him. 

We need to see the real driver behind China’s foreign policy and have no illusion that China will offer real help to end the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Ukraine.