The West has woken up from a decades long slumber to find itself in the midst of a high stakes, real time poker game. But we have forgotten our Cold War statecraft skills that allowed us to display both the hard power and self-confidence, ensuring that our principal adversary would never call our bluff.

For the first time since 1939 a war of invasion rages once again on the Continent. The scale, pace and immorality of Russian aggression has thrust us on a steep learning curve. Each day, as this conflict unfolds, the limits of our collective response is exposed – not through any shortage of strategic and tactical options, but simply through the understandable fear of escalation. 

We watch as more war crimes are committed, more civilians are targeted and more cities are surrounded with the intent of encouraging millions to flee, making a Russian controlled Ukraine easier to govern. Nevertheless, and despite the odds, Ukrainians are displaying incredible courage by choosing to stay and fight. They are calling for our help and we could make the difference. Until we rejuvenate those Cold War statecraft skills that allow us to take more calculated, but resolute risks (without losing control of the escalatory ladder), our hesitance will continue to be exploited. 

Away from the Ukrainian battlefield, the desire to expose, isolate and punish Putin for his actions has been phenomenal. Russia has been castigated by the international community with such speed and breadth that the Russian people will increasingly realise there is no return for their nation from its “pariah status” with him in charge. 

Even Putin’s own state media, spinning this war as a liberation, will struggle to explain the mass closure of major Western companies such as IKEA, McDonalds and Starbucks. Nor can they ignore the drum beat of body bags returning to Russia and the ever excessive censorship measures introduced so that the Kremlin can continue to rule by fear. The facade will eventually collapse. 

We therefore face a simple race against time. From Putin’s perspective, losing this war would be total humiliation. He requires a quick win, but Ukraine’s stubborn resilience means he must resort to unconventional tactics to secure victory. The question now is what scale of carnage is Putin allowed to inflict on eastern Europe before he is stopped?

This is about addressing a geopolitical turning point in our history. A Putin victory would see the West progressively lose control of the international rules based order it fought hard to create as Russia aligns itself ever closer to China and pursues a rival sphere of global influence. It is game-changing for whoever loses.

Britain has done more than most to appreciate the strategic rather than the tactical picture. We were the first in Nato to equip Ukrainian forces with equipment before the invasion and first to upgrade our offensive offering in the days after. But we could be more imaginative and play a more active role, for instance, in giving Polish MIG fighters to Ukraine. Fail to do this and the West will be tested even more – and I fear that Russia’s latest “false flag” operation suggests we might see a chemical attack. 

The utility of Nato’s formidable hard power is the single most potent threat that troubles Putin. It would be another display of Nato’s unity fracturing if we did not act on public commitments to proportionately respond to Putin’s atrocities. No opportunity to help Ukraine should be missed – especially since the Ukrainian armed forces seem more capable and motivated than most observers had predicted. 

Part of Europe is now at war but all of Europe is impacted. Our appetite for risk remains locked in peacetime mode. This must change, as must our spending on defence and security. It is on us if Ukraine falls, so we must adapt quickly. 

Tobias Ellwood is Chairman of the Commons Defence Select Committee