Biggest rebuilding effort since Marshall Plan needed for Ukraine, warns IMF

Ukraine is expected to need the largest reconstruction drive since the Marshall Plan rebuilt post-war Europe as the IMF warned its economy could face a 35pc plunge in output.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF chief, said Ukraine will need huge international support to boost its reconstruction efforts once the war is over after making grim predictions of the economic carnage caused by Russia’s invasion.

The IMF predicted the Ukrainian economy will contract by at least 10pc this year even if there is a speedy resolution to the conflict and it receives huge foreign support. 

However, it warned output in 2022 could plunge by more than a third as mass migration and war damage causes “a significantly more pronounced output contraction” and a collapse in trade.

Economists said efforts to rebuild Ukraine will be the largest in Europe since the Second World War following the damage caused by Russian missile attacks on its cities. 

Liam Peach at Capital Economics said: “I don’t think we’ve seen such large disruption in Europe in many decades. It looks like a lot of the shelling and military operations have happened in urban areas in Ukraine.”

The country will need considerable funding from “international partners to start rebuilding that infrastructure” as part of what will be the biggest reconstruction efforts since the Second World War Two and the US-funded Marshall Plan. 

Following the decimation of Europe in the Second World War, the region was rebuilt with billions of dollars of US aid under the Marshall Plan.

“There has probably been a permanent hit that’s going to weigh on Ukraine’s growth prospects,” said Mr Peach.

The IMF calculated that Ukraine’s government will have a $7.4bn funding blackhole this year as it warned the “downside risks are exceedingly high”.

“The intensity of the ongoing conflict is causing widespread destruction to Ukraine’s productive capacity and rapidly worsening the outlook,” the IMF said.

“The economy is set to experience a deep recession this year. Domestic demand is expected to contract sharply as the war persists, with consumption limited to basic needs with the population displaced, supply disruptions, the destruction of infrastructure, and exceptional uncertainty.”

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