Although serious and critical cases are now inevitably rising, more than 30 per cent of intensive care units remain available.

“Vaccines work to some extent to prevent infection, and to a much larger extent to prevent severe infection, hospitalisation, and death,” said Dr Jerome Kim, director general of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, pointing to Korea’s vaccination of more than 90 per cent eligible people.

Some 60 per cent have been boosted, particularly in the most at-risk groups, he said, adding that drugs including antivirals are also reducing the number of people needing intensive care. 

“Finally, Korea has a defined ICU capacity and an ability to increase that and a plan for isolation and “care at home” with escalating care for people who progress,” he said. “The country has never locked down, the vast majority of people are fully vaccinated, and many of us are watching and waiting to see when the numbers start to decrease.

“As for timing, omicron is a very difficult variant because of transmissibility, but it may be less virulent, so this approach, which keeps some aspects of distancing and mask wearing, may have some chance of success,” Dr Kim said. 

Lifting stringent restrictions

In February, as omicron hit, South Korea announced plans to drop its sophisticated test and trace system – which combined mass testing and rigorous contact tracing based on GPS monitoring – to focus on treating vulnerable priority groups like the over-60s or over-50s with underlying diseases.  The country also intends to remove quarantine mandates for fully vaccinated foreign travellers from March 21.

Dr Jung Jae-hun, who models disease forecasts for the government, said it was an inevitable “paradigm shift in policy” from containing the spread to minimising the damage.

“The government is actively administering oral therapeutics to high-risk groups, and the vaccination rate is very high, so it seems to be successful in suppressing the number of serious cases and deaths,” he said. “But despite this, South Korea is now seeing hundreds of deaths every day, showing the tragedy of the pandemic.”