Dr Kaushal told The Telegraph that any subsequent advance would not be easy for the Russians, adding: “The warship shelling of Odesa reported on Thursday and amphibious vessels arriving in the Black Sea in recent day suggests to me that the Russians are trying to make the feint even more believable.”
Recently, numerous amphibious landing ships capable of carrying thousands have massed in the Black Sea, alongside about 30 Russian warships and submarines.
The defence and security think tank report, Not Out of the Woods Yet: Assessing the Operational Situation in Ukraine, suggests the “exclusive focus” on besieged cities, such as Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Mariupol, “may obscure more than it reveals”.
They even warn how Western military strategists may have suffered “tunnel vision” due to an obsession with the taking of cities like Kyiv.
While Russia had initially planned a swift invasion to seize Kyiv last month, their sluggish advance thwarted by the spirited Ukrainian defence forces may mean generals have switched objectives and targets.
The RUSI report suggests “there is a second Ukrainian centre of gravity – alluded to by Vladimir Putin in his pledge to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine – the regular Ukrainian army, most of which remains near Donetsk and Luhansk, under the aegis of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO).”
It adds: “The position of this force [the JFO] is looking increasingly precarious as Russian forces advance to encircle it on three axes.”
Firstly, the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army and 2nd Army, pushing north from Crimea have begun moving east and may link up at Polohy, a city in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with Russian separatists and Eight Combined Arms Army moving west from Donbas.
Then, the First Guards Tank Army and Sixth Combined Arms Army have “eschewed attempts to take” the north eastern city of Kharkiv, “focusing instead on reducing it with artillery while bypassing it as they advance south and west past Poltava, cutting the JFO off from escaping northwards.”
Third and finally, Russia’s 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division “appears similarly intent on bypassing Mykolaiv”, but rather than advancing on Odesa it may instead thrust northwards, possibly to seize land west of the Dnieper river.
