‘Stagflation’ is here – make sure it doesn’t eat into your investments

Even if that is not how the challenge is framed, the reality is that the scale of tightening required to return inflation to target would bring the economy to its knees. It’s just not going to happen that way. More likely, we are going to have to position ourselves for a world of sluggish growth and higher inflation. So how to do that? Here are some possible solutions.

First, avoid nominal bonds. The index-linked variety may do OK, but inflation is a killer for fixed income investments.

Rising bond yields equate to falling bond prices and rising prices reduce the purchasing power of both the fixed interest payments and fixed return of capital they offer investors.

When it comes to picking the shares for the equity portion of a portfolio, there are some useful questions to ask.

Does this company benefit from a store of value? A housebuilder, for example, that acquired its land bank several years ago and now sits on an accumulating asset, might be well placed in this environment.

What does the cash flow look like? A good example might be a supermarket, which takes cash from its customers at the point of purchase but pays its suppliers some time later, perhaps as much as two or three months later. Supermarkets also benefit from the power imbalance between a large purchaser and a usually smaller supplier.

How important are input costs? A media company, for example, or a technology stock will obviously be less impacted by rising energy costs than an aluminium smelter to make an extreme comparison.

How high is return on capital? Businesses making expensive kit with lots of intellectual property will be better protected in an environment of rising prices than a high volume, low margin operation with little pricing power. If you can live with the ethical considerations, the defence sector fits the bill and is looking at an extended period of full order books if Germany’s recent pivot is any guide.

How’s the balance sheet? Companies with relatively high borrowings, fixed at today’s low interest rates, may look interesting.

The assets they acquire with that debt will grow in value as prices rise but the real liability will be inflated away. It’s the same thinking that encouraged my parents’ generation to take out the biggest mortgage they could afford in the 1970s.

Is this company caught in the squeezed middle? The super-rich don’t know or care if the economy is in boom or bust. They carry on regardless. And at the bottom end there’s always the scope to benefit from downshifters. It’s the businesses operating in the middle ground that get caught in the vice.

Who’s selling what’s going up? Many oil and gas companies will break even at $70 crude. Even after the recent retreat, oil is priced at around $100 a barrel. At that level, energy producers are awash with cash, and they tend to hand a high proportion back to investors in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

And finally, don’t think that gold’s recent rally towards its all-time high of $2,070 an ounce is the end of it. Goldman Sachs thinks the precious metal is heading towards $2,500. If we really are revisiting the 1970s, that might be conservative.


Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity International. The views are his own. He tweets at @tomstevenson63

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