Tingting Ge at JPMorgan says a diversion of trade towards China is “technically feasible” but would be constrained by capacity, transport costs and geopolitical concerns.

“Concerns about secondary sanction risks will also reduce the incentive for China to meaningfully increase imports from Russia and take a re-export role,” she says. “We expect little diversion will take place.”

Nonetheless even if Western sanctions do not collapse the Kremlin’s economy, they will undoubtedly make Russians poorer.

North Korea’s GDP per capita is estimated to be one twentieth of its highly Westernised and open neighbour South Korea, making it the poorest country in Asia. Prior to the pandemic, tighter sanctions backed by China and Russia in response to missile tests had caused North Korea to suffer sharp contraction.

Iranians have also felt the squeeze from sanctions after Donald Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal agreed with Tehran: World Bank data suggests GDP per capita in Iran slumped by 56pc between 2017 and 2020.

James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, says: “These sanctions are worse than Iran – they are more comprehensive. Russia is even more isolated than Iran was. These sanctions are absolutely unprecedented in terms of their effect on a major economy, it is almost hard to comprehend.”

As Moscow beds down for long-term economic isolation, lessons from Iran, North Korea and Venezuela suggest the cost of such a strategy will fall on ordinary Russians.

How Russia’s isolation might affect other countries

Isolating Russia, the world’s 11th biggest economy, affects more than one nation. Thirty years of post-Cold War integration mean others rely on its resources and workers.

Some economies will suffer, but those more politically aligned with the Kremlin may spy a faint silver lining.

Germany

Berlin has built close political and economic ties with Russia. Around one-third of its gas and oil needs come from Moscow, giving the Kremlin vital power. That is compounded by Germany’s domestic energy policy decisions such as closing down nuclear power plants.

Berlin currently plans to halve energy imports by the summer and end them altogether by 2024. An immediate stop, by either country, would likely cause a recession.

Italy

Italy relies on Russia for 40pc of its gas imports, and is also exposed via its banking system. 

While many Western nations’ financiers reduced their links with Moscow after the seizure of Crimea, Rome failed to follow suit. Data from the Bank of International Settlements show the country’s lenders had around $25bn of exposure to Russia late last year. 

Twin energy and financial risks indicate Italy could face an industrial, household and banking squeeze as it tries to pivot away from Russia.

Kazakhstan

Ex-Soviet neighbour Kazakhstan is reliant on Russia economically and politically. Moscow helped out the ruling elite by sending troops to quell protests in January, while the vast majority of Kazakhstan’s cereal imports come from its northern neighbour.

Sanctions could cause problems for Kazakh firms, with cross-border ties coming under scrutiny.

But the country could benefit if Russia loses other trade partners, seeking to do more trade with the few that remain. It could also mean access to imports at a knock-down price for more friendly states.

“Russia is desperate for whatever possible trading partners it can find,” says James Nixey at Chatham House.

Belarus

As a tool of Putin’s invasion and subject of sanctions itself, Belarus’s economy is suffering. Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s has warned of “ mounting economic, balance-of-payments, and financial stability risks following the imposition of strong international sanctions, which stem from its involvement in Russia’s military intervention against Ukraine.”

But its reward may be even more favourable support from Moscow. “Belarus is addicted to Russian subsidies on its energy imports,” says Nixey.

Loans from Moscow to Minsk have been softened, with more generous terms, and its reliance on cheap Russian energy could be enhanced as Western countries pull away.