One point is certain, however. It will be a heck of a lot of money. In effect, that should be turned into reparations (and even better, much of it is Putin’s own money).
A joint investment committee established by the EU, US, UK and Japan should maximise the value raised from those assets and use it to rebuild the roads, bridges and buildings destroyed in the war.
Next, stabilise the currency. No one really knows what the Ukrainian hryvnia is worth right now or how the country is even going to service its debts.
From its mines to its massive fields of wheat and sunflowers Ukraine has plenty of resources, but those are useless without a stable currency and a functioning banking system, and no economy can recover if shortages create rampant inflation.
An immediate priority is a package of loans and grants that keeps the hryvnia stable.
Thirdly, take down all tariffs. The economy is going to take a lot of rebuilding, and it was not in the fantastic shape to start with. (Ukraine’s GDP per capita was only $3,700 before the war, compared with $15,600 for neighbouring Poland, even though they started in similar places when the Soviet Union collapsed.)
It needs to start developing its own domestic industries, and that will be a lot easier if it can export to the EU, Britain, the US, and the rest of the world without any quotas or tariffs getting in the way. The EU shockingly still has a range of levies on Ukrainian agriculture, mainly to protect French and Spanish farmers. Those should be immediately swept away.
Finally, tax breaks. Companies are offered tax rebates for all sorts of things, from investing in research and development to reducing their carbon footprint.
Why not offer a tax break for investing in Ukraine? With a strategic location between a rich Europe and a booming Asia it is a natural hub for manufacturing and distribution. With tariffs and quotas stripped away it would be even more attractive.
If companies could write off the cost of a new factory outside Lviv, or a warehouse on the outskirts of Kyiv, against their corporation tax bill then investment would start to flood into the country.
Revisionist historians are always happy to debate just how influential the Marshall Plan was in rebuilding western Europe after the Second World War. Arguably, lots of other factors played a part in its rapid recovery. And yet, there can be no question that it helped. It was a vote of confidence in the Continent’s future.
A Marshall Plan for Ukraine could achieve something very similar.
It would be a statement of intent, backed up with dollars, euros, yen and pounds.
And perhaps most of all, a Ukraine that is growing, entrepreneurial, and free, will be a painful contrast to the increasingly poor, corrupt, isolated gangster state on the other side of the border.
But the work needs to start now, just as Second World War leaders started planning the post-war world long before the fighting stopped – and the UK should be leading the way.