Friendship alone will not save Boris’s mission to Saudi Arabia

Boris Johnson might, on a personal level, be on cordial terms with Saudi Arabia’s all-powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. But he is likely to find that, in the brutal world of global politics, personal friendships count for little when the destiny of nations hangs in the balance.

Mr Johnson’s personal bond with the Saudi leader dates back to his time as foreign secretary, when the two men spent time discussing the Crown Prince’s bold masterplan, known as Vision 2030, for modernising the Saudi economy, as well as society at large. And while the two leaders continued to maintain contact after Mr Johnson became Prime Minister, their dealings became less frequent as Mr Johnson was obliged to concentrate his attention on pressing domestic concerns, such as Brexit and dealing with the pandemic.

It has taken the Ukraine crisis, and the need to deal with the spiralling energy costs caused by the Russian invasion, to remind Mr Johnson of the importance of Britain’s long-standing strategic partnership with the Saudis.

Consequently, when faced with the possibility of a politically damaging cost-of-living crisis, Mr Johnson’s first instinct has been to hop on a plane to visit his oil-rich friends in the Gulf to see if they can help to bail him out. The only problem, as Mr Johnson has no doubt discovered during his talks with both the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates this week, is that the world has moved on since he first befriended the Crown Prince.

This means that, even if the Gulf states still harbour pro-British sympathies, their ability to help the West in its hour of need are limited because their main priority is to address their own security concerns.

For Britain and its allies, the primary objective is to punish Russia by any means possible for launching its unprovoked invasion against Ukraine. By contrast, the Saudis and Emiratis, while deploring the shedding of innocent blood in Ukraine, have more important concerns of their own, not least of which is the threat posed to their very survival by Iran’s quest to obtain nuclear weapons.

In this context, the timing of the long-awaited release yesterday of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe could not have been more awkward for Mr Johnson as he sought to persuade Saudi Arabia’s rulers that Britain has its best interests at heart.

Irrespective of what deals may or may not have been done to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s release, the fact that she has finally been allowed to leave Iran suggests Britain has been engaged in intensive diplomacy with Tehran.

And the fact that Britain, together with other countries such as the US, appear more interested in making Tehran the focus of their diplomatic effort, and not their long-standing allies in the Gulf, has not been lost on the Saudi and Emirati leaders.

So, instead of rallying to Mr Johnson’s appeals for help in easing the global energy crisis, Gulf leaders are more interested in highlighting their own issues, which they strongly believe are not being given due consideration by their erstwhile allies in the West.

Of particular concern is the malign influence Iran continues to exercise throughout the region, both in terms of its support for terrorist organisations, such as Hizbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, as well as its nuclear activities. Both the Saudis and Emiratis feel Western allies such as Britain and US could, for example, have been far more forthright in condemning the recent Houthi missile attacks on their territory.

Instead, the West appears more interested in securing a deal with Tehran on its nuclear programme, one that, while seeking to contain the regime’s nuclear ambitions, will result in the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran, thereby enabling another major oil producer access to global markets.

With the West determined to end its dependence on Russian energy, the main priority for Western leaders at present is to find alternative sources of supply – hence Mr Johnson’s presence in the Gulf.

With both the Saudi and Emirati leaders signalling their displeasure with Washington by declining to accept calls from US President Joe Biden, it has fallen to Mr Johnson, who has developed a close relationship with the American leader during the Ukraine crisis, to try his hand at getting them to cooperate.

It is a tough ask for the Prime Minister, not least because, with talks aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal said to be close to reaching an agreement, the Gulf states fear their interests are being sacrificed so that the West can have access to Iranian oil supplies. From their viewpoint, the fact that Iran now has sufficient quantities of enriched material for four atom bombs is of far greater importance than the price of a barrel of crude oil.

Certainly, with the geopolitical landscape set to undergo seismic changes in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, a key lesson the West must learn from the current crisis is that there is little point having allies if you do not look after them.

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