The 2022 Oscar season has largely been a sedate old affair, with courteous campaigns and category frontrunners that broadly made sense. But now, as we round the final bend: absolute chaos. For months, three films struck every Oscar analyst and soothsayer as the ones to watch. Kenneth Branagh’s bittersweet cine-memoir Belfast and Jane Campion’s bewitchingly prickly psychological western The Power of the Dog would surely jockey for the higher-profile trophies, while Denis Villeneuve’s sprawling science-fiction adaptation Dune milled around behind them, harvesting the technical gongs. 

But then, two weeks ago, the Baftas happened – and around them the guild awards, presented by the Hollywood-based trade associations and unions representing directors, actors, writers, producers and cinematographers. And the picture painted by these precursor ceremonies was very different to the one many of us had expected to see. 

As a critic, it’s been galling; as an onlooker, an absolute hoot. The central shock was the 11th-hour surge experienced by CODA, Sian Heder’s Apple-backed coming-of-age drama about a hearing teenage girl and her eccentric deaf parents. (The title is an acronym: child of deaf adults.) Apple bought CODA at Sundance last year for $25 million – a record-setting sale for the festival, and the cause of many raised eyebrows among those of us who weren’t convinced by its contrived and cliched storytelling, cartoonish characterisation, and freshly swept, mid-noughties Disney Channel aesthetic. 

But it paid off. The enormous technology corporation went on to successfully position their candidate as both plucky underdog and populist choice. Now Apple may be about to become the first streaming company to win Best Picture, beating poor old Netflix on their first attempt. In fact, there are whispers of a sizable “Never Netflix” faction among Academy members, who’ve taken venomous umbrage at the company’s disruption of Hollywood’s business as usual over the last nine years. 

That’s certainly a possible explanation for The Power of the Dog’s odd lack of traction in the acting and craft categories at other ceremonies. But it doesn’t account for the fading of Belfast – the audience award winner at Toronto and an obvious traditionalist’s pick. Made expressly for cinemas, artful and personal yet accessible, made by a widely admired director, and a commercial hit: what’s not to like? Still, Branagh’s chances might yet rally – or Don’t Look Up could still pull off the sneak victory which, back in January, was briefly fashionable to predict. Here, with the usual disclaimers, is how we expect it to play out…